Bitcoin Scenario Map — Elliott & Fibonacci Analysis Probability-weighted, automation-ready, rules-based framework Market State (Dec 13, 2025): BTC 90,211 USD, Late Primary Wave (5)
📈 Bitcoin Macro Elliott Wave & Fibonacci Expansion
From Capitulation (15,500) to Terminal Structure
Rules-based, automation-ready framework
1️⃣ Why the analysis starts at 15,500 (Nov 2022)
We start Fibonacci and Elliott analysis from ~15,500 because this level represents the true macro capitulation following the 2022 bear market. This period includes the FTX collapse, forced liquidations, credit contraction, and systemic stress across the crypto ecosystem.
Elliott Rule (Frost & Prechter): A new impulsive cycle begins only after a completed bear market and capitulation, not from historical origins.
Earlier reference points (pre-2015, 2017, or 2021 highs) belong to previous cycles. Using them for Fibonacci expansion creates excessively large ranges, distorts wave proportions, and reduces predictive accuracy.
Starting from 15,500 keeps:
• wave ratios proportional
• Fibonacci levels actionable
• and makes automation / AI parsing feasible
Conclusion: 15,500 is the structural origin of the current macro impulse, while older data is context only.
2️⃣ First Structure — Base ABC (Macro Reset)
ABC points (First structure):
• A: 15,479 (Low, Nov 01, 2022)
• B: 31,035 (High, Apr 01, 2023)
• C: 24,576 (Low, Jun 01, 2023)
This is a corrective ABC emerging from capitulation, which in Elliott terms serves as preparation for a larger impulsive move, not the full trend itself.
Elliott Rule: Corrections often precede major impulses and define the measuring base for future extensions.
3️⃣ First Fibonacci Expansion (from A–B–C)
Using A–B with C as the correction anchor, we project the first expansion:
- 1.618 → 40,579
- 2.618 → 56,079
- 3.618 → 71,579
- 4.236 → 81,158
4️⃣ Market Reaction & Elliott Interpretation
Price later reaches H = 73,794 (Mar 01, 2024) — aligns almost perfectly with Fib 3.618 (71,579).
Elliott Rule: Wave 3 is often extended and commonly reaches 1.618 or higher multiples of Wave 1, especially in high-momentum markets like crypto.
The subsequent correction drops to:
• Primary support: 56,079 (Fib 2.618)
• Extreme wick: 49,577 (Aug 01, 2024)
This forms a valid Wave (4) because:
• Wave (4) does not overlap Wave (1) origin
• Depth is deep but acceptable in high-volatility instruments
5️⃣ Second Structure — New ABC from Corrective Low
ABC points (Second structure):
• A: 56,079 (Fib 2.618 from first expansion) or extreme low 49,577 (Aug 01, 2024)
• B: 73,794 (Mar 01, 2024 high)
• C: 49,577–56,079 zone (Aug 01, 2024)
This correction becomes the base for a new expansion, not a new cycle.
6️⃣ Second Fibonacci Expansion
Targets:
- 1.618 → 98,747
- 2.618 → 144,326
- 3.618 → 189,905
- 4.236 → 218,073
Price advances to H = 109,356 (Jan 01, 2025), exceeding Fib 1.618 and forming a clear impulsive B.
7️⃣ Confluence Correction & Third ABC
Price retraces to L = 74,434 (Apr 01, 2025) — aligns closely with Fib 1.618 (81,158) from the first expansion.
Elliott Rule: When corrections terminate near Fibonacci targets of a prior degree, the impulse is continuing, not resetting.
8️⃣ Third Fibonacci Expansion
ABC points (Third structure):
• A: 74,434 (Apr 01, 2025)
• B: 109,356 (Jan 01, 2025)
• C: 74,434 (same corrective anchor)
Targets:
- 1.618 → 146,299
- 2.618 → 206,078
- 3.618 → 265,857
- 4.236 → 302,801
9️⃣ Critical Confluence — Trend Exhaustion Signal
Key observation:
- Second expansion 2.618 = 144,326
- Third expansion 1.618 = 146,299
Elliott Interpretation: When Fibonacci extensions of different degrees converge, the market is approaching a terminal phase rather than strengthening.
This indicates:
• momentum compression
• rising volatility
• increased probability of distribution or ending diagonal, not trend acceleration
🔟 Final Extension — Continuation, Not a New Cycle
ABC points (Final structure):
• A: 56,079 (Fib 2.618 from first expansion) or 49,577 extreme low, Aug 01, 2024
• B: 126,272 (High, Oct 01, 2025)
• C: 81,158 (Fib 4.236 from first expansion)
Important: This is still one continuous impulse, not a reset.
Elliott Rule: A trend may subdivide internally while remaining one higher-degree wave.
1️⃣1️⃣ Final Fibonacci Expansion (Terminal Projections)
From A → B with C as anchor:
- 1.618 → 173,670
- 2.618 → 250,365
- 3.618 → 327,600
- 4.236 → 374,457
These are terminal targets, not early-cycle projections.
⚡ Bitcoin Scenario Map — Elliott & Fibonacci Analysis
Probability-weighted, automation-ready, rules-based framework
Market State (Dec 13, 2025): BTC 90,211 USD, Late Primary Wave (5)
📊 Methodology for Probability Assignment
Weighted combination of:
- 40% Elliott Wave stage + Fibonacci confluence
- 40% Options market structure (OI & skew)
- 20% Market capitalization dynamics
⚠️ Probabilities are risk-weighted, not price promises. Fully automation-ready.
🚀 Scenario A — Controlled Continuation (Terminal Extension)
Estimated Probability: 32–35%
| Level | Wave / Fib | Conditional Probability | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 98,747 | Fib 1.618 (2nd expansion) | ~55% | Upside continuation likely, structural anchor |
| 110,000–120,000 | Intermediate | ~28% | Concentrated 3M–6M OTM calls priced-in |
| 144,000–146,000 | Fib 2.618 / 1.618 confluence | ~14–16% | Terminal top, high reversal probability |
| 173,670 | Terminal 1.618 | ~5% | Extreme, low-probability, final extension |
📈 Elliott Wave Assessment
- Wave (4) low at 74,434 intact
- Late Primary Wave (5) valid but mature
- Upside is possible but structurally limited
🛠 Options Market Contribution
- High OTM call concentration: 100k–140k, short-term expiries → upside largely priced
- Rising OTM puts 70k–85k, longer expiries → defensive hedging
- Put/Call skew still put-biased → caution, limits marginal upside
💰 Market Cap Context
- BTC ~$2T at ~100k → attracts flows, triggers profit-taking and hedging
- Capital expansion supports continuation but risk-weighted probability tempered by derivatives
📉 Scenario B — Terminal Failure & Macro Correction
Estimated Probability: 45–48%
| Level | Wave / Fib | Conditional Probability | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 81,158 | Fib 4.236, Wave (4) support | ~60–65% | Short-term breach → triggers corrective phase |
| 74,434 | Wave (4) low | ~45–48% | Multi-week consolidation possible |
| 56,079 | Fib 2.618, corrective anchor | ~28–32% | Deep correction expected |
| 40,579 | Extreme low | ~10–12% | Worst-case terminal reset |
📉 Elliott Wave Assessment
- Late Wave (5) → high risk of full impulse correction if support breaks
- Weekly close below 81,158 signals initiation of multi-month corrective phase
🛠 Options / Derivatives Impact
- Short-dated OTM puts rising faster than medium-term calls → increases gamma risk, potential rapid drawdown
- Dealers hedging via selling futures/spot accelerates downside
💰 Market Cap Compression Risk
- Break below 81,158 → 12–20% market cap contraction
- Triggers: ETF outflows, deleveraging, forced selling
↔️ Scenario C — Sideways / Distribution Regime
Estimated Probability: 20–23%
| Level | Wave / Fib | Conditional Probability | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 81k–98k | Sideways / distribution | ~20–23% | High gamma, OTM congestion, pin risk |
| 88k–92k | Short-term median | ~12–15% | Elevated retail + institutional activity |
Notes:
- Price action is choppy, not flat
- Elevated open interest on both calls and puts → gamma risk, potential pinning
- Often precedes Scenario B (corrective phase)
📌 Combined Probability Overview
| Scenario | Probability |
|---|---|
| Upside continuation (Scenario A) | ~33% |
| Correction / Wave (A) (Scenario B) | ~47% |
| Sideways / Distribution (Scenario C) | ~20% |
Conditional probabilities are risk-weighted across Elliott maturity, Fib confluence, option OI asymmetry, and market cap expansion.
✅ Final Probability-Weighted Conclusion
- BTC at 90,211 USD → statistically late-cycle, not early
- Elliott Wave → indicates maturity, Wave (5) terminal
- Options → defensive positioning, OTM puts dominate risk management
- Distribution-risk environment, not accumulation
- Correction probability higher than continuation, upside exists but compressed and unstable
Automation / Rules Summary
- Anchor Fibonacci only from capitulation lows
- Use expansions, not retracements, in impulsive markets
- Treat deep corrections that respect Fib as continuations
- Flag Fibonacci confluence across degrees as exhaustion
- Never reset the base unless the impulse origin is broken
✅ Final Conclusion
- The structure is internally consistent
- Fibonacci usage follows Elliott rules
- Confluences signal maturity, not strength
- Current market is likely in late Primary Wave (5)
This is a distribution-risk environment, not an accumulation one.
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